So who's it gonna be? Ullrich or Basso?

[Dial_tone]

Every damn year Jan does this to me. He starts off the year looking like the Michelin Man then in June magically transforms into a Tour Super Contender. Once again I was positive he blew it again this year. I'm surprised yet somehow still unimpressed when he wins a pancake flat Giro TT. Now he's 3rd on GC *AFTER* a mountainous stage of the Tour de Suisse. Considering it's still too early to be 100% he is really flying right now.
A month ago I would've picked Basso...now I'm back to not being sure.

[wilber]

My head is telling me that Basso is the clear favorite, but can he really win the Giro and Tour in the same year. I guess he didn't have to go too hard in the Giro, so maybe he can. I don't think Jan really has a chance -- I just can't see him winning in the mountains anymore.

I've kinda lost track of Vino. What's he been doing with Liberty this year? Does he have a chance? I don't think Team Discovery has anyone who can win it, but can Hincapie or Popovych make it to the podium?

It sure will be fun to watch!

[Dial_tone]

I think Vino is sh*t outta luck with Wurth. Without Manolo guiding the team they will be riding like chickens with their heads cuts. I believe George is the defacto leader for Disco; Johan just doesn't want to say it and put pressure on George. The fact is that nobody in America will give a crap if a foreign rider wins the tour on an American team so Discovery company wants to see George do well. That leaves Savoldelli and Popo out. I can see George in 4th-6th. I am very curious to see who highest placed American will be.

[cyclopop]

It's a very tough call!
I think right know Ullrich is the favorite because he has won the ITT at the Giro and he's showing great form at the TourdeSuisse. But I've lost faith in Ullrich during the past few years (except in 2003) because he's always fading in the big mountains when someone attacks.
It's a very tough call considering that:

-The 2006 TdF fits more to Ullrich than Basso because there's a lot of the ITT's.

-Basso has just won the Giro and that is a huge mental boost form him and his team.

-Basso was unbeatable in the mountains in the Giro.

-Basso has less fresher legs than Ullrich's.

-Vino is gonna attack and may surprise everyone. He's also good at TT.

-Johan "The great" Bruyneel knows how to win a Tour and he's sending 4 potentiel GC contenders: Popo, Sav, Big George and the Ace. But he will have to sacrifice 3 of those guys to put 1 on the podium. Who would that be?

-There's so many great other riders like Valverde, Landis, Kloden,

For all those reasons I'll put my money on : Basso

[Wangle_It]

Good call cyclopop, I like your reasonings, and I would have to go with Basso.

[pigperson]

Basso

[TNT1]

Originally Posted by Dial_tone

Every damn year Jan does this to me. He starts off the year looking like the Michelin Man then in June magically transforms into a Tour Super Contender. Once again I was positive he blew it again this year. I'm surprised yet somehow still unimpressed when he wins a pancake flat Giro TT. Now he's 3rd on GC *AFTER* a mountainous stage of the Tour de Suisse. Considering it's still too early to be 100% he is really flying right now.
A month ago I would've picked Basso...now I'm back to not being sure.

I agree completely. I never rated Jan this year, and now he looks like the man to beat. I would still love a Disco rider to take the overall, but that's just a dream, so I reckon Jan's the man!

[Dial_tone]

Originally Posted by cyclopop

It's a very tough call!
I think right know Ullrich is the favorite because he has won the ITT at the Giro and he's showing great form at the TourdeSuisse. But I've lost faith in Ullrich during the past few years (except in 2003) because he's always fading in the big mountains when someone attacks.
It's a very tough call considering that:

-The 2006 TdF fits more to Ullrich than Basso because there's a lot of the ITT's.

-Basso has just won the Giro and that is a huge mental boost form him and his team.

-Basso was unbeatable in the mountains in the Giro.

-Basso has less fresher legs than Ullrich's.

Basso either has to hold his peak from May thru July (impossible) or come down and peak again. Ullrich is aiming for one peak in mid-July. Basso had 10+ very tough days in the Giro. Ullrich had 3-4 tops in the Tour de Suisse and he has almost 3 weeks before the Tour hits the mountains. Ullrich will be fine. All he has to do is hang on to Basso until the last 1-2km of each mtn stage and his TT gaps will be enough to make up that deficit. I pick Ullrich but he's got to do something about that hair.

[cyclopop]

Good call Dial Tone! You have good points. You're also right about Ullrich's hair, lollllll.
It's obvious that it will be more difficult to peak again in mid-July for Basso. But it's not impossible. The "everything for the tour" method that Armstrong used in the past 7 years is working and that is why so many GC contenders for the Tour are using it this year. But every rider is different and maybe Basso has his method. Don't forget that last year Basso finished 2nd in the tour even if he rode a very competitive Giro.

[dovebar]

I think Basso hands down over Jan. Who did Jan beat? The Giro is the 2nd biggest race and Ivan demolished everyone, biggest margin in a long time. Where Jan did *just* enough to win in switzerland.

Granted Jan will put sometime on Ivan in the TTs I'm guessing about 2mins but I see Jan losing 5-10 in the mountains -- at a minimum.

Dovebar

[forbodybuilders]

basso!

[Dial_tone]

Originally Posted by dovebar

I think Basso hands down over Jan. Who did Jan beat? The Giro is the 2nd biggest race and Ivan demolished everyone, biggest margin in a long time. Where Jan did *just* enough to win in switzerland.

Granted Jan will put sometime on Ivan in the TTs I'm guessing about 2mins but I see Jan losing 5-10 in the mountains -- at a minimum.

Dovebar

I'm not sure how you figure that one. Last years results:

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 86.15.02
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 4.40
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 6.21

Ullrich lost less than 2 minutes to Basso last year so I don't see him losing 10 minutes this year when he's riding better than ever at this point of the season. Add to that two 30+ mile time trials and the ball is back in Jan's court.

[cujo66]

I gotta go with Basso too.

[JoeBAR]

Originally Posted by Dial_tone

I'm not sure how you figure that one. Last years results:

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 86.15.02
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 4.40
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 6.21

Ullrich lost less than 2 minutes to Basso last year so I don't see him losing 10 minutes this year when he's riding better than ever at this point of the season. Add to that two 30+ mile time trials and the ball is back in Jan's court.

Good point here. Ulrich did struggle in the mountains, and still managed to stay close to Armstrong and Basso. If his team keeps up, he has more experience and strength to win it. On the other hand, he's getting on a bit, isn't he

[brazland]

It will be non of these 2 they have been pulled out by their teams, read the the link.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?...n06/jun30news3

[Dial_tone]

All-American podium this year!

1. George Hincapie
2. Levi Leipheimer
3. Floyd Landis
4. Alejandro Valverde

[brazland]

You can't discount Cadel Evans or Michael Rogers but I did mention George some time ago. http://www.extremefitness.com/forum/t46345.html

[brazland]

George is in Yellow early is this a sign of thing to come?

[Dial_tone]

Originally Posted by Dial_tone

All-American podium this year!

1. George Hincapie
2. Levi Leipheimer
3. Floyd Landis
4. Alejandro Valverde

well, scratch Valverde...looks like Cadel Evans is next in line. Bobby Julich might even make the top 5.

[TNT1]

So maybe now Popo is in with a shout for real!!!